Kenya is stepping up preparations for the anticipated 2026/2027 El Niño season as forecasts point to the possibility of above-normal rainfall across parts of eastern Africa between October and December, raising concerns about flooding, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure.
The preparations come only months after the country experienced widespread flooding during the March-May 2026 long-rains season, underlining the urgent need for government agencies, counties and communities to strengthen their readiness before the next rainy season begins.
Climate forecasts indicate that strong El Niño conditions, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could trigger heavier-than-normal rainfall in several parts of eastern Africa. Countries expected to face increased rainfall include Somalia, eastern and southern Ethiopia, northern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.
Similar weather patterns in 1997 and 2019 resulted in widespread flooding across the region, causing deaths, displacement, destruction of infrastructure and major public health emergencies.
For Kenya, the possibility of another period of intense rainfall has heightened the importance of early preparedness, particularly after the devastating effects of flooding experienced during the long rains earlier this year.
By May 3, flooding had affected 27 counties, claimed 122 lives and disrupted the lives of more than 42,000 people. Roads and bridges were damaged, while water systems and electricity infrastructure were affected in several areas, disrupting transport, access to essential services and economic activities.
The destruction also exposed communities to significant health risks, particularly in areas where flooding contaminated water sources and damaged sanitation facilities.
Floodwaters can carry waste and pollutants into rivers, boreholes and other drinking-water sources, increasing the risk of outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A and other diarrhoeal diseases.
Heavy rains can also disrupt access to hospitals and health centres, especially in remote areas where roads become impassable. Such disruptions can affect the delivery of medicines, emergency services and routine healthcare, leaving vulnerable populations at greater risk.
In response, the Ministry of Health has activated a Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan aimed at strengthening the country’s preparedness and response to health emergencies associated with heavy rainfall and flooding.
The plan brings together the national and county governments, emergency response agencies, humanitarian organisations and development partners in an effort to ensure that Kenya is better prepared for possible disasters.
Health authorities are focusing on strengthening disease surveillance and early-warning systems to enable faster detection of potential outbreaks. Preparations are also targeting laboratory capacity, emergency response systems, water and sanitation services, public awareness and the continuity of essential health services.
The World Health Organization is working with the Ministry of Health and the Kenya National Public Health Institute to provide technical support as the country strengthens its preparedness plans.
WHO Representative to Kenya Dr Neema Rusibamayila Kimambo said the flooding experienced during the long rains had provided important lessons that should guide preparations for the coming season.
“The experience of the long rains earlier this year provides important lessons for preparing health services and communities before the next rainy season,” Dr Kimambo said.
Beyond the health sector, Kenya’s preparedness will depend on coordinated action across national and county governments. Counties vulnerable to flooding will need to identify high-risk communities, strengthen evacuation and emergency response plans and ensure that critical infrastructure such as roads, drainage systems and water facilities can withstand heavy rainfall.
Public awareness will also be critical. Communities living near rivers, dams and other flood-prone areas will require timely weather information and early warnings to enable them to take preventive action.
The anticipated rains also present a major test of Kenya’s disaster preparedness systems, particularly the ability of national and county institutions to act before disaster strikes rather than responding after lives and property have already been lost.
As the October-December rainy season approaches, authorities are expected to continue conducting risk assessments and monitoring weather developments to guide preparedness measures.
For Kenya, the lessons from the March-May floods are clear: early warning, stronger coordination and investment in resilient infrastructure could make the difference between a manageable emergency and another devastating national disaster.
With memories of recent flooding still fresh, Kenya is now racing to ensure that its health systems, infrastructure and communities are better prepared for the potential impact of the 2026/2027 El Niño rains.
